How to Run a Profitable Black Friday Campaign?

Author: The CompassBG team
Published: 16 October 2026

In our conversations with online retailers, the same insistence comes up every year: there has to be a promotion at any cost. In our view, this is exactly where the mistakes begin. First we decide we will cut prices, and then we look for a way to make the numbers work.

At CompassBG we do it in the opposite order. We analyse the product, the costs and customer behaviour, and only then choose the offer. In the video we share observations from this work and options we discuss with our clients.

Watch our Black Friday video on YouTube (in Bulgarian) and see how to judge whether a discount is worth it for your business. Watch the video.

1. Why do fake discounts undermine sales?

A fake discount creates the expectation of a good deal that the real price does not justify. When the customer realises this, they start to doubt your future offers as well.

In the video we ask how long we will keep raising prices shortly before Black Friday just to announce an impressive discount. We see that such offers convince people less and less. Customers compare shops, follow products and remember what they used to cost.

This practice also carries the risk of presenting the discount in a misleading way. A short-term order does not necessarily make up for the loss of trust.

If you want the person to come back at the regular price, they need to believe the first deal was fair.

2. Which price should the discount be calculated from?

When announcing a discount, the general rule is to use as the previous price the lowest price the retailer applied during at least 30 days before the discount. This is set out in the Bulgarian Commission for Consumer Protection (KZP) guidance on discounts (in Bulgarian).

Raising a price does not in itself make every later promotion unlawful. The problem is using the wrong base or a misleading message. Keep a price history and state clearly which products, period and conditions apply. Public prices must include VAT and any applicable fees, as KZP reminds online retailers (in Bulgarian).

3. How does a discount change the profit from a single sale?

A discount reduces the amount left after the cost of goods faster than it reduces the selling price. With a low margin, even a moderate discount can eat up a large part of the gross profit.

To keep the same total gross profit, you have to sell twice the quantity. Turnover is then €160 instead of €100, which is a 60% increase, not a doubling of turnover. The calculation is before advertising, delivery and other costs; all values are on the same basis, excluding VAT. Margin here is a share of the selling price, not a markup on the cost of goods.

4. When does a real price cut make sense?

A price discount makes sense when the extra sales or the future contribution of the customers it attracts justify the lower margin. This has to be checked before the launch.

Calculate what is left of the order after the cost of goods, payment fees, packaging, any delivery you pay for and advertising. Account for returns. Then check whether you have the stock and the capacity for the required increase in volume.

In our work on online marketing and advertising, we set the goal before the advertising message. Clearing stock, launching a new product and attracting buyers for regular orders are different things. Each goal allows a different discount and a different period for judging the result.

5. How can a gift replace a price discount?

The right gift adds usefulness to the purchase while keeping the price of the main product. It works best when it is connected to the way the customer will use the product.

The brush has a clear link to the purchase and comes from the supplier at no separate purchase cost to the retailer. Still, plan for packing, handling and the limited number of sets. Describe exactly when the customer receives the gift. Do not assign an artificially inflated value to the bonus to make the offer look more impressive.

Before you cut the price, ask your suppliers what sets, samples or accessories they can provide. Sometimes the option already exists but is not included in the communication to the end customer. Also check whether the gift is still useful to someone who buys only one item.

6. What other alternatives are there to a lower price?

You can offer an extra commercial warranty, support, setup or a consultation when this solves a real problem for the buyer. Choose a service you can deliver well.

In the video we suggest considering a longer support or warranty period included in the price. For the customer this can mean fewer worries after the purchase. For the business, however, there is a future cost that has to be calculated.

Write down the scope, the period and the limitations. An extra commercial warranty must build on the statutory rights, not present the mandatory protection as a gift. This distinction is explained in the EU information on guarantees.

Only promise what your team and partners can actually deliver.

7. How does customer value over time change the calculation?

With regular repeat purchases, you can treat the first discount as a customer acquisition cost. The decision has to be based on real purchase history over a defined period.

This calculation only applies if the repeat purchases actually happen. In the video we use dietary supplements as a product with potential for regular buying. In your business, measure the actual frequency. Customer value, known as LTV, means different things depending on whether you measure revenue or contribution after costs.

Compare the discount and the advertising spend with the expected contribution, but do not deduct the discount a second time if you have already calculated the profit from the discounted price. Also check when the money you put in will be recovered.

Future profit does not cover today's payments to suppliers.

8. Why should Black Friday customers be analysed separately?

Buyers attracted by a strong discount can behave differently from your other customers. That is why the store's overall repeat rate is not enough for a forecast.

In our practice we see that some of these people buy because of the specific price and do not come back for a regular offer. We would not assume in advance that retention will necessarily stay above a certain percentage.

Separate the customers whose first purchase was during the campaign. Track how many order again, when, and whether they buy without a new discount. Compare them with buyers from a normal period, observed over the same length of time. That way you will see whether the discount attracts long-term customers or mostly one-off deals. See also our article on sustainable business and repeat sales.

9. Does every business need to take part in Black Friday?

You do not need to run a campaign just because your competitors do. Taking part makes sense if you can offer real value and reach a specific business goal.

With a low-margin product, infrequent repeat purchases and expensive service, a discount can leave too little for the business. If there is no suitable gift or extra service, keeping your regular offer is a reasonable decision.

Also consider whether the campaign creates new purchases or simply moves into November orders you would otherwise have received in December. Our approach is to judge the overall result for the period, not only the peak on the day of the promotion. Higher turnover matters together with profit and the workload on the team.

10. How do you turn the campaign into future sales?

Prepare your post-purchase communication before you launch the ads. The customer should get good service and a fitting reason to come back.

Start with clear delivery information and useful product instructions. After delivery, check that everything is fine. When the right moment comes, suggest an add-on or send a renewal reminder. We develop this approach in our article on customer retention and in our digital sales system.

Measure the result through your orders, CRM system and Google Analytics. A repeat sale also has communication and service costs. The goal is for them to be justified by the customer's real contribution.

Decide who monitors stock and who answers enquiries. After the campaign, review completed orders, returned goods and gross profit. Keep following the same customers over the next months to assess repeat purchases.